A mere two months in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while his coach berated him over missing a through-ball. At that point, as the club went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or a cause for the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. After the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains a particularly tough query to resolve. History, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, in only two games has the team posted an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a club which has just won a ten-match winning streak, they seem curiously susceptible – however right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach looks like to trade blows with rivals and wait for Rogers to save the day with two crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred in London, and again when facing United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they have to face over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, will not continue to drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be an alternative path where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he was in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge while establishing himself as a vital England player.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful when the game ended leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
