A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
